^My man, take it from me, do not get involved in gambling, it is a lose lose. There are a million opportunites out there to make money, but you only bet the farm when you KNOW you have the informational advantage. He didn’t care about our hit ratio as much as he cared about how much exposure we had when DID hit vs how much we had when we missed. This train of thought directly applies also to card-counting and trading…One of the most profound discussions I ever had with my CIO was about this. Being “Pro” is being able to identify those and bet accordingly. Goes back to what former trader says, the money is made on those few choice opportunities. You want to minimize exposure to these 50/50 games while maximizing bets where the odds are more favorable. As what was stated earlier, with the efficiency in information, the point spread is designed to be (and is very effective) at making the outcome a coin flip, with the book earning the vig. But it’s not so much about wins/losses as it is managing how much wagered. I’ve read you are considered “Pro” at handicapping if you can maintain at or above a 54% hit rate.
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